Is Thailand Safe To Travel In Now

The official tourism dollar figures are collected from the airlines and the major hotels that are plugged into the Government system, this falls far short as anyone who has visited knows Thailand is not really a high end destination, most people who travel here do not stay in high end hotels, nor eat in the international restaurants or other places that could be used to collect data.

For instance here is a list of other reasons the tourism dollar is much more important in Thailand:

1. Visit Khao San Road, all the backpackers there eat, drink and spend money, none of it is counted toward the total spend. Do you really think those guesthouses with tiny 200 Baht rooms report their taxes correctly, what about the lady with the pushcart kitchen cooking pancakes all hours of the night. Even though backpackers do not spend a lot per day there is a constant and massive flow of these people through Thailand. Add in the tour companies, hte backpackers filling places like Koh Samui, Pagn Nan, Phi Phi Island and there is a literal army of undocumented spenders.
2. Nana Plaza, Soi Cowboy, Pattaya - adult entertainment areas. One look at these areas and you know there is money being spent hand over fist by thousands of punters every night. Again how many of the bars or girls do you think report their earnings to the Government
3. Sponsorship. An ex-pat word describing a fellow living overseas and sending his Thai girlfriend money each month to live and generally study to improve her education and also to help support her family. There are entire rural villages that rely on this income for survival. None of this is included in the figures.
4. Foreign Marriage. Assuming the above scenario works out the foreigner who marries in Thailand soon finds that he can own nothing in his name (Just a condo), so buying the house, the  farm upcountry (many girl's lifelong dream), the car and then the labour and seedlings to get the farm started all go into your wifes name - none of this spending is counted as foreign spending in Thailand. Again there are some villages in the countryside that are about 80% foreign paid and built.
5. Many ex-pats have local girlfriends and help support thier families upcountry some stupidly with huge amounts of money, others provide financial help at times of the year like rice harvesting/planting times

This all adds up to a huge amount of 'tourism' dollars that are not counted in the GDP.

But the official figures only tell a part of the story. A million here or a million there in the GDP makes very little difference but those millions spread amongst the poorest communities make a huge difference to entire provinces.

For example a rural family living on thier farm in a province like Buriram for instance (one of the poorest provinces, where the dark skinned girls are considered amongst the ugliest (by the Thais) and with little chance to marry up in life) you will find MANY of the girls marrying foreigners.

In fact the Bangkok Post reported that foreign husbands bring in 230 million Baht a year (US$6.5 million approx), not a lot of money.... or is it?

The population and housing census 2000 reports that Buriram has a population of about 1.5 million and the average per capita income is 14,343 Baht (US$409) per year.

That means that the us$6.5 million per year from the 967 foreign husbands in brings in an additional 10% income to each and every person in the province.

Add in the additional income from those husbands first getting married and paying Sinsot (dowry), buying house and lands, a car, motorbike(s), and assorted farm machinery and you start to get a better picture of what is really going on.

Add in the boyfriends (ex-pat and overseas) and the daughters living in Bangkok, or Pattaya and sending money home for the family and you get entire provinces relying on the 'tourist' dollar to live. Unfortunately Buriram isn't a tourism destination as such but it still has 12 hotels catering for visitors to the region, this is another indication of income and jobs generated.

Sooner rather than later the Thai government officials will wake up to this and stop lying about how unimportant tourism is to Thailand.

Sooner will be quite likely as more and more Thais realise that high season is not arriving this year, or rather the Tourists are not coming there will be more and more trouble. Already I notice the touts getting more desperate, more aggressive, Taxi drivers curb crawl following walking tourists hopiong to get a fair, this is annoying for me as an ex-pat as I get a succession of Taxis/Tuk Tuk drivers following me as I walk to the gym or my friends place everyday some are rather pushy about taking you to a good place for suit massage or gems.

In typical local economic fashion the 'answer' has been to raise prices for everything, selling less so they hike the prices. Those of us living here then gravitate to those few places smart enough to drop prices to encourage more custom or choose to stay at home, further worsening an already bad situation.

Meanwhile those in power still play their little feudalistic power clashes and refuse to go along with a democratically elected government while up north some radio broadcasters are already calling for blood in the streets of those responsible for the current troubles (the PAD party - middle class Bangkokians generally are the supporters).

Many of the poor Thais travel down from the North East Issan region to work during high season which then carries them through the rest of the year, add in Samui, Phi Phi, Koh Lanta, Ao Nung, Pattaya and other predominant tourist destinations that will collapse without a high season.

These people returning home to report no tourists and no money this year will not be happy, add in a hungry family and a clear enemy responsible for all this and a clear call for open class war (poor vs the monied Chinese-Thais of Bangkok) and this could very well be a reality.

As for travelling here, go ahead, I recommend all my friends to travel here now, you will get to see Thailand without the tourists and get to have the hotel you want when you want, no waiting and the people here will be very glad to see a customer (usually). Keep away from demonstrations and government buildings and from dark places at night (as you would anywhere) and you will be safer here than in your home city.

Also though the Army helicopters have just been flying around, these are serious helicopters, not your little skinny news chopper but you can feel them flying overhead, the sound and vibration can be felt, anyway keep away if you see these congregating anywhere, keep away from crowds and never talk about the King (you can go to gaol) - as a foreigner you should have nothing to do with politics in fact, in fact do not discuss politics at all (some guys had a taxi driver pull a shotgun after insulting the old PM).

And do not go drinking with poor Thai guys, there is a high chance there will be trouble.

Do not travel to the 3 southern most provinces unless you are comfortable travelling armed and the possibility of being shot or blown up.

Don't do drugs of any type, no it is not cool to light up a gunja joint on the islands, I don't care if the Thai guy selling is smoking one - there is a large chance he is a Police informant and you be heading to gaol. Also to note is that a new "war on drugs" has started here and will last for 3 months, last war on drugs in 2003 there were 51,000 arrests and 2000+ extra-judicial deaths (shot dead on the spot, no trial) - don't be one of these. If you know someone has drugs get out of the room and stay away from them, in Thailand just being in the same room is enough for a conviction.

The border incidents with Cambodia in Sisaket province (next to Buriram) have quietened down and neither side has had anymore deaths since last month with promises by the Cambodian PM and the Thai PM not to escalate the incident to full blown way, though both sides have increased military spending and have ordered new equipment. This despite one PAD (the protesters) leader claiming that he would invade Cambodia and with Thai Battleships take all the islands off Cambodia and reclaim them rightfully as Thai (only one problem, Thailand has no Battleships) and the Thais would have a hell of a time taking any Cambodian territory as they would instantly reactivate Khmer Rouge guerillas who the Thais could not catch even when they were operating out of Thai territory back in the 90's - think starting a Vietnam like war again but against really bad sadistic killers who spent thier entire lives and the last 3 generations fighting in the jungle with NO ROADS in the region.

Besides that Bangkok is safer than Sydney in a lot of ways, yes I know it all sounds dangerous but go watch your evening news or travel to your local Police station in your home town and ask to see the wall of crime scene photos - after that you'll feel safer here too.

:)